Earlier this year, I explored with readers how Israeli leaders have walked a diplomatic tightrope after Russia’s brutal aggression in Ukraine. In addition to having concerns for the large Russian Jewish population there, Israel is keenly aware that its military forces are in close proximity to Russian troops in war-torn Syria. In fact, while he was still serving as Israel’s top diplomat, Yair Lapid (now prime minister) said his nation’s border with Syria “for all intents and purposes, is a border with Russia.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not been pleased. For example, last month he lashed out in an interview on French television, exclaiming: “Israel did not provide us with anything. Nothing. Zero! I am shocked. … I don’t understand why they can’t provide us with anti-aircraft means.”

Iran denies that it is supplying such arms, but the U.S. and Ukraine are convinced otherwise.

That comment brought a seething rebuke from a top political ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and Israeli agents moved quickly to tamp down the flames by pointing out that Shai did not have authority to speak on behalf of the government in this matter. Defense Minister Benny Gantz confirmed that Israel’s policy would not change, stating: “We will not supply weapons.”

New twists are further complicating Israel’s position. While Russia and Iran were both in Syria ostensibly to buttress the once-endangered regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, they were also competing for influence. But just this week The New York Times reported that Russia is decreasing its boots-on-the-ground footprint and pulling back a key air-defense system. Given its ongoing aggression in Ukraine, Russia’s redeployment may not be surprising. But how is it being done, and what are the repercussions? On the one hand, this move could mitigate an obstacle for Israeli warplanes, but the Times notes also that Israeli officials worry that a Russian drawdown could actually allow Iran to strengthen its position in Syria.

“It is often assumed that Russia has no appetite to open another front against Israel in Syria due to its focus on the battlefield in Ukraine, and this red line has not been crossed by Moscow yet,” Svetlova wrote in August. “However, the situation might change if Russian alignment with Iran and Syria keeps expanding. If and when that happens, Jerusalem must be ready with an adequate and strong response, and with the confidence that it has the United States to rely upon.”

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